Health Economics

  • Cancer Risk Factors and Prevention
Prof. Dr. med. Michael Schlander

Prof. Dr. med. Michael Schlander

Head of Division

The aim of the division is to contribute to our understanding of the costs and cost effectiveness of cancer and cancer care—spanning the continuum from prevention and early detection/screening to diagnosis and treatment. To this end, the division has established collaborations both within the DKFZ and its networks, as well as with other German and international scientific institutions.

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Our Research

The Division of Health Economics contributes to:

  • Exploring the conceptual underpinnings of the logic of cost-effectiveness,
  • Developing advanced evaluation paradigms,
  • Deepening understanding of the social value of health care programs.

To support these objectives, the research program is structured around three core pillars:

Burden of disease studies
These address the cancer-related burden of disease, the attributable cost of illness, and budgetary impact of interventions. Analyses are conducted from multiple perspectives—societal, payer, and patient—with a particular (but not exclusive) focus on Germany.

Cost-value analyses
These evaluate the cost-effectiveness of clinical intervention strategies in cancer care. Topics range from institutional innovations (e.g., comprehensive cancer centers) to novel developments, including the expanding role of targeted therapies.

Economic methods and Social Costs Value Analysis (SCVA)
This pillar focuses on advancing the methodology of economic evaluations within the existing cost-effectiveness paradigm. It also supports the development of new approaches that better incorporate societal values and priorities in cancer care.

A fourth, overarching pillar complements the program:

Education, training, and outreach
This includes initiatives aimed at disseminating research findings and engaging a wide range of stakeholders to foster dialogue, capacity building, and informed decision-making.

Burden of Disease Studies

Burden and Cost of Cancer - Germany

In collaboration with Forum, the journal of the German Cancer Society, a series of reviews summarized evidence on disease burden and societal/health care costs of major cancers. Two publications addressed principles for measuring cancer costs in Germany; three analyzed epidemiological and cost estimates for specific cancer types. A separate review extended the analysis of pancreatic cancer to the European context.

Selected Publications

D. Hernandez, F. Wagner, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, M. Schlander:
Economic burden of pancreatic cancer in Europe: a literature review.
Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer, 2023; 54(2): 391-407.
DOI: 10.1007/s12029-022-00821-3

D. Hernandez, T. Ran, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, M. Schlander:
Krankheitslast von Darmkrebs in Deutschland: Epidemiologie und Kosten [Disease burden of colorectal cancer in Germany: epidemiology and costs].
Forum, 2023: 38, 58-65.
DOI: 10.1007/s12312-022-01154-9 

D. Hernandez, P. Giri, A. von Both, M. Schlander:
Krankheitslast von Lungenkrebs in Deutschland: Epidemiologie und Kosten [Lung cancer disease burden in Germany: epidemiology and costs].
Forum, 2022: 37, 387-404.
DOI: 10.1007/s12312-022-01123-2

D. Hernandez, A. von Both, M. Schlander:
Krankheitslast von Prostatakrebs in Deutschland: Epidemiologie und Kosten [Disease burden of prostate cancer in Germany: epidemiology and costs].
Forum, 2022: 37, 227-234.
DOI: 10.1007/s12312-022-01075-7

D. Hernandez, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, M. Schlander:
Die Messung der Kosten von Krebserkrankungen in Deutschland. Teil 2 – Wirtschaftliche Belastung [Determining the cost of cancer in Germany. Part 2—economic burden].
Forum, 2022: 37, 42-48.
DOI: 10.1007/s12312-021-01026-8.

D. Hernandez, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, M. Schlander:
Die Messung der Kosten von Krebserkrankungen in Deutschland: Teil 1 – Epiemiologie und Krankheitslast [Determining the cost of cancer in Germany. Part 1 – epidemiology and disease burden].
Forum, 2021: 36, 406-410.
DOI: 10.1007/s12312-021-00988-z

M. Schlander, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, C. Thielscher:
Kosten der Onkologie in Deutschland [Cost of cancer in Germany].
Forum, 2018: 33, 330-337.
DOI: 10.1007/s12312-018-0481-5
 

Cost Value Analyses

Cost-Effectiveness Analyses (CEAs) of Specialized Cancer Care

Certification of hospitals for cancer care has become an important quality assurance measure, though it incurs significant costs. In collaboration with Jochen Schmitt’s team (NCT Dresden and Center for Evidence-Based Health Care, University of Dresden), we used administrative data to provide the first health economic evidence that colon cancer care in certified German cancer centers improves survival and reduces healthcare costs. Given uncertainties about generalizability, we launched a follow-up study assessing the cost-effectiveness of certified breast cancer care, with plans to include additional tumor types.

For breast cancer screening, mammography shows a favorable benefit-harm balance for the general population, and biennial screening is recommended in Germany for average-risk women aged 50–69. However, this may not suit women with different risk profiles. We adapted the “Wisconsin Model” to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of risk-adjusted screening strategies. For prostate cancer, we are collaborating with Peter Albers (DKFZ, University of Düsseldorf) to assess personalized prevention strategies from the PROBASE Trial, using a recalibrated Swedish natural history model adapted to Germany.

CEAs Alongside Clinical Trials

Health economic evaluation alongside clinical trials offers an unparalleled opportunity to collect relevant health care resource utilization and (quality of life) utility data in addition to the clinical endpoints. A collaboration was established with NCT Heidelberg to support two clinical trials: (1) a randomized phase-III study to compare two schedules of gemtuzumab ozogamicin as an adjunct to intensive induction therapy and to compare intensive postremission therapy double-blinded with or without glasdegib in older patients with newly diagnosed AML (GnG) and (2) a randomized study in newly diagnosed AML with FLT3-ITD comparing Daunorubicin/ Cytarabine or Idarubicin/Cytarabine and Quizartinib to physician’s choice (Q-SOC).

Our support included drafting health economic sections of trial proposals, designing resource use questionnaires, selecting utility measures, and training clinical staff in data collection. Although both trials were discontinued for reasons unrelated to health economics, the Division continues to offer support for embedding economic evaluations in clinical studies.

CEAs of Tumor Prediction Models

The BMG-funded “Tumor Behavior Prediction Initiative” (TPI), led by Titus Brinker (Digital Prevention, Diagnostics and Therapy Guidance, DKFZ), aims to develop new biomarkers to support long-term personalized cancer treatment across multiple cancer types, including melanoma, breast, and colorectal cancer. The Division of Health Economics contributes to this collaborative research project by evaluating the potential value of the routine use of AI-based digital biomarkers in clinical practice.

In the Skin Classification Project, also led by Dr. Brinker, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) were designed to aid melanoma diagnosis. The Division of Health Economics evaluated the potential economic value of introducing such new diagnostic algorithm in everyday clinical practice by designing an early-phase economic model. The initial estimates predicted potential cost savings in the magnitude of €7m for German statutory health insurance through an AI-based assistance system, based on retrospective data.

A follow-up study (Skin Classification Project II) is now underway to refine these estimates of the diagnostic algorithm based on clinical data from a multicenter prospective study. This ongoing evaluation will assess various scenarios and potential outcomes of a real-world implementation through model-based analysis.

CEAs in Precision Medicine and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)

The Division of Health Economics contributes to the EU-funded project CCE-DART (Building Data Rich Clinical Trials), which focuses on improving clinical trial design and methodology for targeted therapies. As cancer research increasingly adopts adaptive, basket, and umbrella trials to evaluate treatments based on biomarkers rather than histology, there remains a gap in robust methods for conducting health economic evaluations alongside these innovative designs.

Through the Basket of Baskets (BoB) case study, we are exploring how to integrate clinical data from such trials into economic evaluations to support health policy decisions on precision oncology approaches.

Prevention & Screening Cost-Effectiveness Models

In response to DKFZ’s strategic focus on cancer prevention, the Division launched three major modeling initiatives assessing screening and prevention strategies for colorectal (CRC), breast, and prostate cancer. All use advanced microsimulation techniques for robust long-term evaluation, moving beyond traditional Markov cohort models.

For CRC, most existing models overlook the serrated neoplasia pathway, potentially leading to overly optimistic results. The Division developed the DECAS model (Discrete Event simulation model for Colorectal cancer from the Adenoma and Serrated neoplasia pathways), calibrated using approximate Bayesian computation and validated against major screening trials. DECAS has been used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various CRC screening strategies.

An important advancement was the publication by Lwin et al. (2024), which used DECAS to compare four CRC screening strategies starting at age 45 with the current national program starting at age 50. The results demonstrated that earlier screening—especially colonoscopy or combined with fecal immunochemical tests (FITs)—offers substantial QALY gains at modest additional cost, supporting a policy shift in response to rising early-onset CRC in Germany.

While CRC evaluations are advanced, breast and prostate screening models are still in development. For breast cancer, mammography has been shown to provide more benefits than harms for the general population, leading to the biennial mammography recommendation for women aged 50 to 69 in Germany. However, this approach may not suit women with varying risk profiles. To address this, we adapted the “Wisconsin Model” for evaluating risk-adjusted screening strategies. For prostate cancer we are collaborating with Peter Albers (Personalized Early Detection of Prostate Cancer, DKFZ) to evaluate personalized prevention strategies using data from the PROBASE Trial. A Swedish prostate cancer model is being adapted and re-calibrated for the German context.

Selected Publications

M.W. Lwin, C.-Y. Cheng, S. Calderazzo, C. Schramm, M. Schlander:
Would initiating colorectal cancer screening from age of 45 be cost-effective in Germany? An individual-level simulation analysis.
Frontiers in public health, published 21 Feb 2024. 
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1307427

C.-Y. Cheng, S. Calderazzo, C. Schramm, M. Schlander:
Modeling the natural history and screening effects for colorectal cancer using both adenoma and serrated neoplasia pathways: the development, calibration, and validation of a discrete event simulation model.
MDM Policy & Practice, 2023: 8(1), published 21 Jan 2023.
DOI: 10.1177/23814683221145701.

C. -Y. Cheng, T. Datzmann, D. Hernandez, J. Schmitt, M. Schlander:
Do certified cancer centers provide more cost-effective care? A health economic analysis of colon cancer care in Germany using administrative data.
International Journal of Cancer, 2021: 149(10) 1744-1754.
DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33728

A. Deibel, L. Deng, C. -Y. Cheng, M. Schlander, T. Ran, B. Lang, N. Krupka, N. Beerenwinkel, G. Rogler, R. Wiest, A. Sonnenberg, J. Poleszczuk, B. Misselwitz:
Evaluating key characteristics of ideal colorectal cancer screening modalities: the microsimulation approach.
Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, 2021: 94(2) 379-390.e7.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gie.2021.02.013

M. Schlander:
Risikoadaptierte Früherkennung & Prävention.
Invited oral presentation at the 35th German Cancer Congress (DKK).
Berlin, Germany. November 13-16, 2022.

S. A. Khan, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, D. Hernandez, M. Schlander:
Estimation of the stage-wise costs of breast cancer in Germany using a modeling approach.
Frontiers in Public Health, 2023: 10, published 6 Jan 2023.
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.946544

S. A. Khan, K. V. Hernandez-Villafuerte, M. T. Muchadeyi, M. Schlander:
Cost-effectiveness of risk-based breast cancer screening: A systematic review.
International Journal of Cancer, 2021: 149(4) 790-810.
DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33593

A. Molnar, T.J. Brinker, A. Hekler, K.V. Hernandez-Villafuerte, M. Schlander:
Direct costs related to medical management of malignant cutaneous melanoma through the patient pathway.
Value in Health, 2020 23(Supplement 2) S460.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2020.08.348

M. Schlander, C.-Y. Cheng, T. Ran:
The health economics of cancer screening in Germany: Which population-based interventions are cost-effective? [Gesundheitsökonomie der Krebsfrüherkennung in Deutschland: Welche Interventionen sind kosteneffektiv bei bevölkerungsweiter Umsetzung?]
Bundesgesundheitsblatt, 2018: 61(12) 1559-1568.
DOI: 10.1007/s00103-018-2839-3

Economic methods and Social Cost Value Analysis (SCVA)

Multi-attribute utility (MAU) theory-based instruments to measure health-related quality of life (HRQoL)

Contemporary methods to measure HRQoL in economic evaluations are grounded in multi-attribute utility theory. The Multi-Instrument Comparison (MIC) study compared major instruments, revealing they measure related concepts but differ significantly in sensitivity and content—affecting health service valuations and cost-effectiveness comparisons.

In the German branch of the MIC study (led by Michael Schlander as PI), we found results broadly similar with findings from Australia, Canada, Norway, and the United States. Findings were presented to and discussed with experts from international HTA agencies, including the German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG).

Further analyses of MIC data showed how six different multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUIs)—EQ-5D, SF-6D, HUI-3, 15D, AQoL-4D, and AQoL-8D—vary in their sensitivity to the dimensions of the SF-36 HRQoL questionnaire. Using data from 8,022 participants across six countries, ordinary least squares regression was applied to assess relationships between SF-36 dimensions (such as physical functioning, mental health, and bodily pain) and utility scores from each MAUI. Results revealed that AQoL-8D is most sensitive to mental health, EQ5D to bodily pain, and 15D to physical functioning. This underscores the critical importance of selecting the appropriate MAUI based on the specific health domains of interest, as different instruments exhibit varied responsiveness to HRQoL changes. 

Validity of health state utility values used for cost effectiveness analyses

Health state utility values (HSUVs) represent the weights individuals assign to medical interventions or medical technologies, serving as a critical input in cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) to adjust disease state durations and quality of life, ultimately contributing to quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Despite their importance, there is no widely accepted quality assurance /QA) tool for interpreting and systematically reviewing HSUV studies.

Our first step was a comprehensive review of QA practices in 73 SRLs of HSUVs published from January 2015 to April 2021, highlighting the need for consensus on definitions and dimensions essential for a robust QA framework. An international, multidisciplinary expert panel of seven purposively selected members was established, employing a modified Delphi method with two anonymous online survey rounds followed by a virtual face-to-face meeting. The process achieved consensus on the definitions of scientific quality, QA, three QA dimensions (reporting, relevance, methodological quality), and the scope of a QA tool for systematic reviews of HSUV studies. Future research will focus on identifying QA items, signaling questions, and response options to finalize the tool, aiming to standardize and improve the evaluation of HSUV studies for more rigorous cost-effectiveness analysis in healthcare.

Value of a statistical life year

The evaluation of health care interventions – in particular in the context of health technology assessments (HTAs) – invariably implies some kind of (explicit or implicit) cost benefit assessment. One possible anchor is the value of a statistical life year (VSLY); however, currently used benchmarks for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained are controversial and lack robust empirical support. 

Our systematic literature review identified 156 studies reporting original data, yielding 169 unique estimates for the value of a statistical life (VSL). After transformation of VSL into VSLY values, we expressed the VSLY – contingent on variables including regional origin of data, valuation method, and study design – in Euro (2019) and as multiples of annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The median VSLY was €168,367 (mean, €256,701) or 6.3 times annual GDP per capita. Regression results indicated that studies with North American data sources reported significantly higher VSLY estimates. We also observed differences by elicitation method, but not by study design. Overall, our results suggest that the empirical WTP for a statistical life year might be substantially higher than currently accepted international benchmarks for cost-effectiveness within the health care context. 

Selected Publications

M. Schlander, D. Hernandez, O. Schwarz, R. Schaefer:
Are Commonly Used Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds Too Low? Empirical Evidence From Economic Studies On The Value Of Life.
International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 2024: 40(S1), S85.
DOI: 10.1017/S0266462324002435

M.T. Muchadeyi, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, G.L. Di Tanna, R.D. Eckford, Y. Feng, M. Meregaglia, T. Peasgood, S. Petrou, J. Ubels, M. Schlander:
Quality Appraisal in Systematic Literature Reviews of Studies Eliciting Health State Utility Values: Conceptual Considerations.
Pharmacoeconomics, 2024: 42(7), 767-782.
DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01365-z

J. Tetteh, M. Schlander:
Exploring the Sensitivity of Utility Scores Predicted by the EQ-5D, SF-6D, HUI3, 15D, AQoL4D and AQoL8D Multiattribute Utility Instruments to SF-36 Dimensions.
Value in Health, 2024: 27(S12), S441.

M. Schlander, R. Schaefer, O. Schwarz, J. Richardson:
Can We Predict the Impact of the Differential Sensitivity of Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) Instruments on the Valuation of Health State Changes?
Value in Health, 2024: 27(6), S261.

M. Schlander, O. Schwarz, D. Hernandez, R. Schaefer:
Are North Americans Willing-to-Pay More for Life and Limb?
Value in Health, 2024: 27(6), S218.

M. Schlander, D. Hernandez, O. Schwarz, R. Schaefer:
What Is a Year of Life Worth? Empirical Findings from Worldwide Economic Studies on the Value of a Statistical Life.
Value in Health, 2023: 26 (S12), S277.

M.T. Muchadeyi, K. Hernandez-Villafuerte, M. Schlander:
Quality appraisal for systematic literature reviews of health state utility values: a descriptive analysis.
BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2022: 22(1), 303.
DOI: 10.1186/s12874-022-01784-6.

M. Schlander:
Measuring health-related quality of life.
Oral presentation at Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (IQWIG).
Köln, Germany. July 9, 2018.

M. SchlanderO. SchwarzD. Hernandez, R. Schäfer:
The search for a cost effectiveness standard: 1-3 times GDP/Capita?
Poster presentation at Health Technology Assessment international (HTAi) Conference.
Vancouver, Canada. June 1-5, 2018.

M. Schlander, O. Schwarz, D. Hernandez, R. Schaefer.
The Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY) – An Analysis of Empirical Economic Studies from 1995 to 2015.
Presentation to the 12th European Conference on Health Economics,
Maastricht, July 14, 2018.


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Team

  • Employee image

    Prof. Dr. med. Michael Schlander

    Head of Division

  • Employee image

    Rachel Eckford

    Researcher

  • Employee image

    Katrin Eike-Verfürth

    Administrative Assistant

  • Employee image

    Min Wai Lwin

    Ph.D. Student

  • Employee image

    Anett Molnar

    Ph.D. Student

  • Employee image

    Muchandifunga Muchadeyi

    Ph.D. Student

  • Employee image

    Dr. Ramon Schäfer

    Researcher

  • Employee image

    Polina Skarga

    Student Assistant

  • Employee image

    Dr. Josephine Tetteh

    Researcher

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Prof. Dr. med. Michael Schlander

Head of Division
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